Unfortunately those UR and Epic drop chances appear to be more in the sub 1% range.
I have one Epic and Zero Ur in over 250 boxes (last event included)
Do not underestimate those Upgrades!
Each upgrade gives you 51200 TP, which is the same as 4 Superior Upgrades.
Each Superior Upgrade would consume 1075 Dil, x4 = 4300 Dil.
Worse case scenario you pay 40,000 dil to get 10 UC = 10 Upgrades.
Those are still worth 40 Superior upgrades = 43,000.
So even then you make a good deal.
Now let's take your drop example and count 6 UC, 3 Rare and 1 VR = 16 Phoenix Upgrades.
Those are worh 64 Superior Upgrades / 68,800 Dil.
You always come up ahead if you get the 10 pack Phoenix boxes, no matter how bad you luck is.
So far i got about 100 upgrades. I did get one or two toons the console but mostly I have been getting the upgrades.
yea, we would need to conduct a study of at least 1000 boxes opened at the same speed to get anywhere near an accurate scientific observation... all i can hypothesize is that the chances are on anything but a linear curve (math wasn't a strong suit of mine, but science was so purely guessing)...
hmm... i wonder if i can do that on Tribble like the redditors did to determine lockbox keys and upgrades chances... I'm still waiting on someone there to get back to me on confirming my equations on figuring out how many upgrades it takes to get to a certain QIC % at mk xiv to make a rarity upgrade calculator.
out of all my boxes have scored 2 VR tokens and the rest were R or UC so i changed them all to UC and grabbed the upgrade tokens..... best bang for the buck imo as none of the other rewards at R and UC levels grab my interest.
I agree and the maths work out you save dill using the phoenix compared to the Superior upgrades.